North vs. South, again

The scene on Yeonpyeong-do late this afternoon. Photo via

I know it's right after a Foreign Lands roundup, but this probably shouldn't wait until next week. So, kids, here's the deal. The North fired some shells on an inhabited island near the disputed maritime border between North and South Korea today. This was ostensibly in response to a provocative exercise by the South Koreans, though the South Korean government is denying the claims that any shells came close to the boundary. This is a fairly big deal because instead of firing upon a military target, the North Koreans fired on civilian targets - homes and businesses on the island of Yeonpyeong. The South Korean and American militaries are on heightened alerts, with South Korean fighter jets being (apparently) scrambled near the border and South Korean troops at the ready. More can be read here, here, and here.

Of course, most of this information is fairly shaky at best - South Korea is not exactly known for its stellar journalistic practices (barest foundation for this fourth-person hearsay? LET'S PUBLISH AS UNQUALIFIED FACT!), and that goes double for the shitty Korean English-language news outlets, so the precise situation is not exactly known, and probably won't be known until tomorrow morning. But I figured some of you might be curious, so I am going to go ahead and give you my gut reaction to all this.

To me, this feels like the sinking of the Cheonan, which happened back in March of this year. It was one of the most deadly attacks on South Korea since the cease fire in 1953, and was a real tragedy for this country. But ultimately, in the grand scheme of things - nothing happened. Well that's not precisely true. Most of the last vestiges of the Sunshine policy of President Roh Moo-hyun (which had largely been gutted by current president Lee Myeong-bak in previous years) were reversed, and business continued on as normal in the South. The GNP talked big, but, as expected, did little.

Nor, on the other hand, did North Korea. Really. Nothing - and I mean literally nothing - came of the Cheonan incident other than people talked about what to do with a problem like North Korea. My gut reaction is that this incident will ultimately be similar - North Korea putting on a show of violence that is as much to shore up support amongst the top-ranking party officials for the impending transition of power from Kim Jong Il as it is to regain international attention as they seek to restart the 6 party diplomatic talks.

That's sort of the beauty of this strategy. While I'm not 100% sure that the talks would go their way, they have pretty much forced the other five nations (Japan, China, Russia, South Korea and the US) to agree at least in principle in order to avoid further violence. I'm betting that sometime during 2011, we'll be hearing about new rounds of talks between the six nations. Neither South Korea nor North Korea really wants all-out war - it would be way too destabilizing in the north, and I'm not sure the south is convinced it could win in a war with North Korea - 700,000 troops vs 3 million is a fairly daunting disadvantage.

So there you go - I believe, at this moment, that this was a one-off, isolated incident. The problem, though, is North Korea sees these isolated incidents as viable ways to get the rest of the world to pay attention, and will almost certainly continue to do them whenever they need something. The key here is to stop treating North Korea like a petulant child - it just reinforces their behavior. What's more, I think it does us a real disservice in terms of our own abilities to understand and think through situations involving North Korea when we write it off as a child. It would behoove us to put ourselves in the shoes of Kim Jong Il and do a bit of critical thinking to try to figure out what they want and what they would be willing to sacrifice to get it. Only then will the outside world be able to come up with a workable strategy to successfully interact with/contain/isolate/solve North Korea.

Oh yeah basic message: I'm fine over here, guys. No need to worry.

QUIT SNEAKING INTO NORTH KOREA

Ok guys we need to have a discussion. As some of you may know, there has been a recent spate of Westerners (mostly Americans) sneaking into North Korea and getting caught. Perhaps the most high-profile instance was last summer, when journalists Laura Ling and Euna Lee were caught and detained for several months before Bill Clinton had to go over to North (or "Best") Korea to save their asses.

A happy ending

More recently, however, an English teacher in South Korea from the States, Aijalon Mahli Gomes, was captured and sentenced to a labor camp for entering the country illegally. There has been much speculation as to why he went over - from 'he just loved Best Korea that much' to 'he wanted to bring the love of Jesus Christ to the poor heathen North Koreans' - but there has been no official word regarding what he was really doing in the north. So now President Jimmy Carter has flown to Pyongyang to...do something.

 Apparently part of it is getting smacked by little girls.

Here's some interesting information about Carter and North Korea: back in 1994, he was sent to North Korea on a "covert" mission (covert in that it was ostensibly personal and not sanctioned by the Clinton administration) to mediate a conflict between the DPRK and USA (about nuclear arms, I believe - how things have changed!). He was extraordinarily successful, going so far as to negotiate the framework for a treaty (which was TOTALLY not part of his mission) of understanding between the two nations. Long story short (too late!) he's got a fair bit of understanding and insight into the situation up'air.

Of course his talents are being employed to go rescue some adventurer or thrill-seeker or do-gooder in North Korea. And I'm not arguing that homeslice should remain in prison, but I think our humanitarian former presidents probably have better things to do with their time than rescuing people who get themselves in these situations.

So here's the deal guys: QUIT DOING THIS. QUIT SNEAKING INTO NORTH KOREA. IT WILL NOT END WELL FOR YOU. I do not care what your reason it, whether it's humanitarian or information-seeking. The thing is, folks, we have professionals who are working to deal with North Korea. They are called diplomats, and they are FAR better trained than you are in bringing about peace or learning information or Jesus-ing people or whatever it is you think you need to do up in there. Now please, PLEASE just let Jimmy Carter take a nap. He looks like he needs one. Stay out of North Korea except through legal means. And make damn sure those means are really legal. 

 

A writing post

Alright kids, I'm about to do that annoying bloggy thing that bloggers do and just write because I haven't posted in a while, so you are free to leave at anytime. I will not keep you here.

OK here goes.

One of the things I want to do while I'm over here is improve my writing skills, so I've been trying to write every day. Most of the time that ends up over on my tumblr account (shameless plug GO!), but I haven't actually done the greatest of jobs. It's not that I don't have a lot to say, I just don't always have the chance to write it down immediately. Or the humorous spin I put on it in my head. And then when I do sit down to write, I got nothin. Kinda like now! The difference is that now I'm writing. And I'm going to write just to write until I come up with a storyline or I get REALLY bored. WHO KNOWS WHICH WILL HAPPEN FIRST? STAY TUNED TO FIND OUT.

OH one thing I should probably mention for all you folks there out of Korealand...the whole, y'know, war thing that's going on. It all started (as each and every one 'a youse should know) with the sinking of the Cheonan about a month ago that took the lives of 42 of her crew. Through a prolonged investigation (and it's important to remember that this investigation to the cause of the sinking did take a month), it has been demonstrated that the most likely cause was a North Korean torpedo. Following the official declaration from the South Korean government (which itself came several days after the independent, international investigating committee announced its findings), much ado has been made about the escalating tensions between the two countries, with people concerned about this getting LEGIT. Possibly too legit to quit.

The first thing you should understand, though, is that these two countries have been at war for very nearly 60 years. Incidents like the sinking of the Cheonan have happened before, and will very likely happen again. There hasn't been a serious escalation of the conflict stemming from any of the previous incidents, and there's no real reason to believe that will happen now. What is most likely going on is that Kim Jong Il is making a show of military force to ensure the backing of his generals during the transition of power from him to his son.

Look, it's kind of a mistake to simply write him of as an irrational, unpredictable crazy person. You don't rule a country for thirty plus years through some SERIOUS natural disasters if you're completely bonkers. He is an eccentric, for sure, but he also knows what he is doing...it's really not in his (or China's, or Russia's, or South Korea's, or Japan's, or the US's) best interest to take this conflict any further. He knows just about how far he can push the international community without putting in SERIOUS jeopard his hold on power. Sanctions he can deal with - when things get bad in a couple years he can just agree to more nuclear dismantling talks for some lifting.

The second thing to consider in all this is the reaction of South Korea. Obviously it can't go unnoticed - that would be a terrible injustice to the families of the victims. It's also election season (on the local level, regional councils, mayoralties, and governorships up for grabs), and the ruling GNP are facing serious disenchantment with their policies. That combined with popular sympathy for the late president Roh Moo-hyun of the DP (who killed himself approximately one year ago following what is widely perceived as an overzealous investigation of corruption charges led by the GNP) mean they (the GNP) need to find some wedge issue to bring voters back to their side. A strong response to North Korea would be just the thing.

Even then, it's not likely to go beyond UN sanctions, severing the small ties built with the north, and increased military posturing...and that's very likely where all this will end. So you guys needn't worry. Yes, I have registered myself with the US Embassy here just in case. But I am fairly positive this will all come to nothing.

Yikes this turned into a more serious and subject-oriented post than I had initially hoped for. Sorry guys, you came for incoherent ramblings and instead got an uninteresting rehash of Current Topics in Foreign Policy. My bad.

Now I feel pressured to come up with something funny for you guys...but I got nothin. Whateva. I'm done. I'll write something funny later GOD STOP PRESSURING ME INTERNET!

OH here is an amusing link to keep you all occupied. Hyperbole and a half. She is hilarious.